depende muito, o resto do mundo subiu e só a bovespa/dow que não?
pq vamos pegar 2010-2020, a Bovespa andou de lado por 10 anos, isso não é problema se o resto do mundo também tivesse ficado nessa situação, porém a S&P500 subiu se não me falha a memória 400% e o dólar 300%, então vc poderia ter tido seu patrimônio aumentar em 700% nesses 10 anos em relação ao real, por isso que é diferente se o mundo todo tivesse entrado em uma depressão gigante que ninguém teve uma performance boa e só subiu 1 ponto, vs um mercado só ter uma performance ruim.
e é exatamente por isso que vejo a diversificação mundial como importante.
Exclusivo. Tipo os melhores cenários só investindo em renda fixa, ou só investindo em renda variável.
dá uma lida nesse site
Vanguard's portfolio allocation models are designed to help you understand different goals-based investment strategies. Discover what best fits your needs.
investor.vanguard.com
ele mostra o retorno de cada alocação, se baseando em vários índices (eles explicam no final)
Vanguard portfolio allocation models
How do you choose how much you want to invest in stocks or bonds? These allocation models can help you understand different goals-based investment strategies. There's no right or wrong model, so it's important to tune in to what you feel best fits your goals and risk tolerance.
Income
An income portfolio consists primarily of dividend-paying stocks and coupon-yielding bonds. If you're comfortable with minimal risk and have a short- to midrange investment time
horizon, this approach may suit your needs. Keep in mind, depending on the account, dividends and returns can be taxable.
Historical Risk/Return (1926–2020)
| Average annual return | 6.1% |
| Best year (1982) | 45.5% |
| Worst year (1969) | –8.1% |
| Years with a loss | 19 of 95 |
Historical Risk/Return (1926–2020)
| Average annual return | 7.2% |
| Best year (1982) | 40.7% |
| Worst year (1931) | –10.1% |
| Years with a loss | 16 of 95 |
Historical Risk/Return (1926–2020)
| Average annual return | 7.7% |
| Best year (1982) | 38.3% |
| Worst year (1931) | –14.2% |
| Years with a loss | 18 of 95 |
Balanced
A balanced portfolio invests in both stocks and bonds to reduce potential volatility. An investor seeking a balanced portfolio is comfortable tolerating short-term price fluctuations, is willing to tolerate moderate growth, and has a mid- to long-range investment time
horizon.
Historical Risk/Return (1926-2020)
| Average annual return | 8.2% |
| Best year (1982) | 35.9% |
| Worst year (1931) | –18.4% |
| Years with a loss | 19 of 95 |
Historical Risk/Return (1926-2020)
| Average annual return | 8.7% |
| Best year (1982) | 33.5% |
| Worst year (1931) | –22.5% |
| Years with a loss | 20 of 95 |
Historical Risk/Return (1926-2020)
| Average annual return | 9.1% |
| Best year (1933) | 36.7% |
| Worst year (1931) | –26.6% |
| Years with a loss | 22 of 95 |
Growth
A growth portfolio consists of mostly stocks expected to appreciate, taking into account long-term potential and potentially large short-term price fluctuations. An investor seeking this portfolio has a high risk tolerance and a long-term investment time
horizon. Generating current income isn’t a primary goal.
Historical Risk/Return (1926-2020)
| Average annual return | 9.4% |
| Best year (1933) | 41.1% |
| Worst year (1931) | –30.7% |
| Years with a loss | 23 of 95 |
Historical Risk/Return (1926-2020)
| Average annual return | 9.8% |
| Best year (1933) | 45.4% |
| Worst year (1931) | –34.9% |
| Years with a loss | 24 of 95 |
Historical Risk/Return (1926-2020)
| Average annual return | 10.3% |
| Best year (1933) | 54.2% |
| Worst year (1931) | –43.1% |
| Years with a loss | 25 of 95 |
When determining which index to use and for what period, we selected the index we deemed a fair representation of the characteristics of the referenced market, given the information currently available.
For U.S. stock market returns, we use the Standard & Poor’s 90 Index from 1926 to March 3, 1957, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index thereafter.
For U.S. bond market returns, we use the Standard & Poor’s High Grade Corporate Index from 1926 to 1968, the Salomon High Grade Index from 1969 to 1972, and the Barclays U.S. Long Credit Aa Index thereafter.
For U.S. short-term reserves, we use the Ibbotson U.S. 30-Day Treasury Bill Index from 1926 to 1977 and the FTSE 3-Month U.S. Treasury Bill Index thereafter.
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. The performance of an index is not an exact representation of any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index.
Pontos importantes para entender o seu nível de risco:
Um portfolio 100% de título teve em seu pior ano uma queda de –8.1%, você está comfortável em ter seu investimento desvalorizar 8% em um ano?
O portfolio 100% de ações perdeu –43.1%, você conseguiria aguentar uma perda de quase metade do seu patrimônio em um ano?
Em comparação, o melhor ano dos títulos está em 45.5%, contra 54.2% das ações. e se você olhar no longo prazo, os títulos renderam 6.1%, contra 10.3% das ações.
