This last chart is a year-on-year comparison of the two lead consoles. I extended the previous year line to potentially predict where this year's line might be expected to go. I think using this as a predictive tool should be met with caution; one can clearly see the effects of last year's gundabump on the 2007 PS3 line, of which the PS3 has no similar title this year. I think combining this last chart with momentum, availability, and significant releases the following week might lead to an interestingly close predictive tool. In this case, one might say next week the Wii may hit around 52k, but using the same ideas (especially of momentum--or lack of it), and suggest that the PS3 may hit around 14k.
Questions regarding the year on year chart:
[ ] So the Wii was supply constrained last year but it is not at this moment, right? Is it odd to you that this year's results so closely match last year's capacity?
[ ] For a review of how last year went, look up to the "Next-Gen Weekly Sales" line chart. If I counted correctly, the PS3 was below 25k for around 40 weeks last year...yet the Wii was only below 50k 14 times last year. Looking back at the same chart, and taking a large grain of salt with the assumption of the year-on-year chart, would one be able to look at the "Next-Gen Weekly Sales" chart and conclude that the contest was over AFTER A MERE 6 WEEKS?
Follow: After those first 6 weeks of both launches, sales for the Wii stayed remarkably steady between 50-85k, while the PS3's sales stayed remarkably in the basement around 12-19k. Barring the proximity that the PS3 enjoyed to the Wii's sales approaching last year's holiday, the PS3 has never been remotely close to the Wii. Looking back, it began after those first 6 weeks. So, was it really over that quickly? Could those next 6 weeks of sales under 20k been a red flag? Should Sony have acted more quickly to combat the momentum (savage price cuts?)? Was it over before it began?
Based on the latest Media Create numbers...
DS vs PSP: Weekly shares of 41.3 / 58.7, PSP's best since Crisis Core week. This brings the total shares to 72.3 / 27.7. At this week's rates PSP catches up to DS in 623.8 weeks (February 15, 2020). If DS stopped selling and PSP continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 184.4 weeks (September 14, 2011).
PS3 vs Wii: Weekly shares of 17.3 / 82.7, Wii's best since last July. This makes the third straight week of 80+% for Wii. This brings the total shares to 26.1 / 73.9. If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 260.3 weeks (February 27, 2013).
Based on the latest Famitsu numbers...
PS3 comparisons: After 68 weeks, PS3 is where PS2 was at 15.8 weeks (June 16, 2000), where PSP was at 45.3 weeks (October 18, 2005), where GCN was at 67.4 weeks (December 24, 2002), and where Wii was at 16.7 weeks (March 22, 2007).
Yup,
GameCube has leapfrogged PS3 again.
Wii comparisons: After 65 weeks, Wii is where GBA was at 64.7 weeks (June 13, 2002), where DS was at 56.8 weeks (December 30, 2005), where PS2 was at 89.6 weeks (November 15, 2001), and where PSP was at 129.1 weeks (May 27, 2007).
Looks like
Wii could pass up GBA soon?
